... and I'm damn glad you finally listened to him. Both formats are fantastic, but it is Hardcore History that has stolen my time completely. I will listen to his shows over and over again... seriously.
That said, I'm concerned that you and I listened to the same podcast... but came to completely different conclusions about what he was saying.
Why would a solution that presented the least problem for us to overcome militarily be the one you would advocate in regards to the crisis in Iraq and Syria?
His half-hearted endorsement of a modern "caliphate" was not because it was something we, as a superpower, are good at winning wars against. It was to show that one cannot govern THAT many people of THAT many varied ethnic and denominational differences and NOT be far, far more moderate than the extremists we are so afraid of now. Saddam would still be in power now, crushing the life out of 25 million Iraqis with nary a word of rebuke from the US, if he hadn't overplayed his hand and invaded a sovereign neighbor... Kuwait. Iran is still a thorn in the side of the US because they haven't overtly done anything to tip the scales against them in the ponderous but fluid game of international diplomacy.
One cannot successfully govern Sunni, Shi'ite, Kurd, Berber, Arab, Afghan, Turk, Somali and Pakistani without a degree of moderation and even-handedness that simply doesn't exist today... but it has existed in the past. His point, as far as I can tell, was that with a caliphate-like structure, there would be a central authority that simply doesn't exist now... and hasn't since the end of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.
More importantly, as you hear more of his podcasts, I think you will see that Mr. Carlin is a big fan of allowing people like the Iraqis (or anyone else we are desperately trying to manipulate) the freedom to determine their own form of government... something we should be behind 100%, regardless of what that form takes. This harkens back to the debate we had when Lebanon finally had "free" elections and elevated Hamas to the heights of power. You were outraged... incensed, even. Yet it was exactly what we had hoped they would do: elect a government that best represents their interests. I don't like Hamas any more than you do... but that is the price of the democratic process, isn't it? Hitler was elected, after all.
Putting aside the question of a caliphate, though...
The three-state solution could work. Worrying about ISIS overtaking the entire middle east seems a bit much. They have overrun most of northern Iraq and eastern Syria only because the Shi'ite minority of the area has chosen NOT to fight with any real effort. That is the reason we hear reports of 800 "terrorists" routing 12,000 US-trained Iraqi infantry. The ISIS groups have nearly full logistical support from the Sunni populous, but are risking intervention from Iran (if it hasn't come already) AND Hamas. They are living large on the reputation that the videos and pictures of street murders and mass killings provide them... but even a small bit of actual supported resistance could curb their gains very quickly.
There will come a time when the politics of the few will cost the majority so much in blood, fear and hunger that the support (voluntary or otherwise) will end, and you will see the REAL fruits of an Arab Spring. ISIS can instill fear and terror, as they have so clearly demonstrated. I am 100% confident that they will be even more incapable of actual rule than the Taliban, or the PLO, or Hamas.
Therein lies the problem, though, doesn't it? I am sure that F Ryan is NOT ready to wait for ISIS to fail any more than he was the Taliban, the PLO or Hamas. As you said, should an attack from Iraq (in any of its future forms) be made on America, then we respond with overwhelming force and total victory. Not before though... preemptive actions and operations do not allow for a clear strategic grand strategy, but defensive or retaliatory actions and operations do. That is the ingredient that we were missing since long before 2001... in fact, all the way back to the end of the First Gulf War.
Finally, now that you have discovered the wonder that is Dan Carlin... you simply MUST listen to the Wrath of the Khans. It is a four-part (I think) series that I have listened to at least four times. Utterly fascinating, and delivered in a manner that even my children have enjoyed... and that is saying something.
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