I thought this was interesting...

This article caught my eye, so I followed up and found it to be very accurate in its assessment.

Seems the author thinks that the Palestinian peace process is less complicated than anyone thought.

Obama has made numerous parallels between the violence in Israel today and the violence in Northern Ireland 20 years ago... so much so that his pick for Special Envoy was none other than George Mitchell, Clinton's former Special Envoy to Northern Ireland during the peace settlement between Ireland, Northern Ireland and the UK.

The Good Friday Accords have been a major success, and things have never been safer or more stable between the two nations since that time. I don't want anyone to think that I am taking away from that peace process... but is the peace process the only factor to consider here?

In 1970-71, 16% of the entire population of Northern Ireland was made up of men between the ages of 15 and 21 years of age. By 1998 (the year the Good Friday Accords were signed), that 16% well into their 40's, with families, jobs and mountains of responsibility (as well as a booming "Celtic Tiger" economy). No one wanted to fight anymore... or very few did. Peace was more profitable than fighting. Even more interestingly, though... the birthrate for Catholics was over 6 kids per family and over 5 kids per Protestant family. By 1995, it was under three for both demographics. The rate of population growth had fallen markedly for both sides, in other words.

Population numbers in Palestine are harder to come by, because it is in the best interest of the PA to keep them inflated to increase foreign aid to the populus... but if the WHO and the Israelis are to be believed, the birthrate is falling far faster than the PA wants to admit. The rate in the 1960s was over 8 kids per family... but now is closer to three, and more and more outsourcing by the Israelis to places like the West Bank for technical jobs is making a growing segment of the Palestinian population increasingly aware of how good life can be with "peace" the norm, rather than the exception.

In fact, if the trend of the last 8 years continues... less than two percent of the Palestinain population will be within that volatile 15-21 year old bracket by 2040 (its at 12% now), and the over-all population will be lower than the 28 million estimated right now (possibly by as much as 8%).

I'm not suggesting older populations can't or won't fight... 1940's America is proof positive that this is not the case... but they are less volatile, and less likely to fight for fighting's sake than a population of teenagers with no jobs and no prospects. Northern Ireland is proof of that.

The sad thing is, Obama must not see this. His pick for Special Envoy to Palestine, George Mitchell, went in to the job in 2009 with the clear intent of repeating his success in Northern Ireland... but resigned in utter failure only last May. Most of Obama's advice on Palestine now seems to stem from another Irish influence in the White House... Samantha Power. After resigning in some disgrace during the 2008 campaign run, she is now on at the NSA as a special expert on foreign affairs. This person also thinks that what worked in Northern Ireland in '98 can work in Palestine now... but no one really knows how.

First off... the Catholic and Protestant clergy of Northern Ireland, to a cleric, denounced violence as "a sin" of the greatest magnitude... while the majority of clerics in Palestine see violence against Israeli authority as a matter of course. Secondly, no "two state" solution would have or could have answered in Northern Ireland... ever... yet, that is the proscribed course to follow in Palestine according to this Administration. Furthermore, no economic revival or "boom" has occured in Palestine yet, the way Ireland (and by extension, Northern Ireland) did in the 90s. Jobless rates in the Republic were at record lows, and the country actually saw (for the first time ever) a decrease in the rate of emmigration and an increase in the rate of immigration. The population of Ireland was actually GROWING... but the population of the Palestinian territories is shrinking (in terms of Muslims, that is... the Israelis within the territories is a growing number, but that is another story).