Wednesday, December 12, 2007

One last chance?

This country, since the first World Trade Center bombings, has had numerous chances to take the initiative against al Quieda in the War on Terror (which I know wasn't declared yet). I'm not going to blame one President more than another, but there is enough mistakes since 1982 to make all FOUR of our most recent CICs look pretty frigging foolish in this regard.

Yesterday a devestating coordinated terrorist attack took place in Algeria, in which both the Algerian civilian government and the UN were directly targeted. This attack has presented the US with a particularly interesting opportunity, I think... and thus the reason for my post.

In 1990, then-President Bush and his Cabinet put together one of the most striking examples of international cooperation since the Allies met at Yalta. The Coalition was a truly multi-national military force with one goal in mind... the liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. 17 Western nations and 11 Arab nations got together and managed, under the leadership of two of America's best choices for the jobs they had... Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and General Norman Schwarzkopf (I know that James Baker was SoS, but I am not giving him much credit for the success... that's another post).

Since then, there hasn't been a whole lot of "international"and especially "regional" good will coming our way from the Islamic world. Short of (maybe) Pakistan and the new Iraqi government... name me another Arab or Muslim state that has openly fought terror. Okay, I'll put Turkey on the list, too (although they may be making more trouble then they are fixing). Now name me an Arab or Muslim state that we can count on with real trust to support the US in the fight against international terrorism... again, Turkey? Pakistan? Saudi Arabia (snicker)? Lybia (COUGH)?

Algeria ended ten years of civil war in 2002... and this civil war was fought by the military-controled government in Algiers against the rising tide of Islamic extremists that threatened to take control of the elected legislative body of the government. The pro-Western, anti-extremists won.

Now al Quieda is back, attacking the UN as "Crusaders" in the "Islamic Nation" and the Algiers government as "pieds-noirs"... the old French term used to distinguish French colonialists from native Algerians by their "black boots". This is good propaganda for the terrorists... the Berber people of Algeria have had centuries of repression under the boots of colonial powers that date all the way back to the fall of the Caliphates in the 18th Century, and millions of Algerians still recall the fight for liberation from the French.

After ten years of intense civil war, the Algerian government is still trying to get their full oil and gas capabilities back on-line, and they are benifiting from the high price of oil, but it might not be enough... their military is equiped with seriously out-dated French and Soviet technology, and in a nation that is roughly four times the size of Texas (yes... TEXAS), that is stretching existing resources pretty thin.

This attack could give the government of Algeria just enough of a wake-up call to make offers of assistance from places like the US seem pretty inviting. Weapons and supply contracts with the Algerian military, maybe some new vehicles and aircraft, a couple of coastal cruisers for shore patrol, and PRESTO! A brand new ALLY in the regional (North African) fight against terror and al Quieda. Feed them the technology they need to increase oil production (and watch the Saudis piss themselves!) and we also might see a reduction in crude costs (not likely, but maybe).

This might be Bush's last chance to really work some foreign relations magic before he leaves the White House for good. To bring the Algerians as fully into our camp as we can... outside the influence of places like Ryiad or Cairo or Damascus... and what could we accomplish then?

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