Do you trust the Government?

I found this chart from the Pew Research Center that I thought was terribly interesting...

It's an interactive chart, so by clicking certain categories and scrolling over certain areas, you see new and refined details to the data. If you're going to follow my post here, you'll need to spend some time going over the information.

With the data on the charts going back as far as 1958, I think we can pretty clearly see that we are at a near-all-time-low in confidence and trust in the Federal government for the last 50 years... and that is really saying something. Taking into account such historical landmarks as Vietnam, Watergate,the OPEC oil crisis, the Carter Recession, Iran-Contra, the Clinton Impeachment, and the debacle that was the Bush Administration's exit ratings in 2008... we are talking about some impressively low confidence and trust levels, aren't we?

A point I wanted to make in particular was the "incumbent losses" graph. Looking at the 50 year scope of the polls, I'd say that we are, indeed, poised for a rather broad change in the spectrum of the House (there are no available figures for the Senate in this graph). With any dip in the public trust of more than 15-17 points, we see a corresponding jump in the number of incumbent losses that averages around 26 seats or better. Since Bush left office, we have seen exactly 17% less trust in government than 2006 (and that was a rating following close on the heels of Katrina, mind you... when very little of the public thought the Feds were doing anything right!). Now, I understand that getting a 40-seat sweep is asking a lot (and we'd need exactly that to take a conservative majority again and seize control of the House away from the Dems), but if the direction that public opinion is moving continues for even another three years, then I'd say that by the next Presidential election cycle, we could see a conservative majority in the House. Regardless, surely even a 47% minority gives the conservative voice a far greater boost given the propensity of such "Blue Dogs" as Taylor, Holden, Murphy, et al to follow a conservative agenda would mean a break with the strangle-hold that the liberals have maintained for nearly four years now.

On a side note: Look at the trust and confidence rating the polls give the end of the Bush Sr. years, and mark that against what most Americans have come to see as a successful Presidency (his post-Presidential ratings are higher than 60% overall, and our "Report Cards" gave him high marks, as well). The end of Bush's term saw the fastest drop in public confidence in Government over the whole 50+ year span, and while I blame a good portion of this on Congress, it can't but have been effected in some way by Bush himself. His raising of taxes in spite of the "Read My Lips" promise hurt him, as did his perceived "out-of-touch" attitude towards the American economy... but it surprises me that so much of the distrust evaporated so quickly when using the "hindsight" glasses. Does anyone else think that this is a good example of a failing Congress more than a failing White House? After all, we were only 24 months from the Conservative Revolution of 1994 when the GOP gained nearly 60 seats. It seems like a lot of drop for a relatively good Presidential term, and seeing as how Clinton didn't lose as much (by half) while suffering his impeachment, it can't be something we can only attribute to the White House, right?

Anyway... I thought it was a cool tool.