McCain will lose.

Let me briefly explain why I believe this to be so.

History is repeating itself. Mac is Gerald Ford. An honorable man. A political moderate. A familiar DC face. But he is facing a dislike, and frankly a disgust, of his party over Bush (much like Ford's unpopular pardoning of Nixon). Ford v. Carter was the 2nd closest election in history (#1 until 2000), but as we all know, and as America has traditionally done, the controlling party of the White House changed when there was a "controversial" president. Consider Gore - he should have won in a walk given "Slick Willy's" approval numbers, but Bill was morally controversial. Nixon was (to put it lightly) integrity controversial (or challenged if you will). Bush is message controversial. I afford him the "message" problem because I think we all agree that it was his Achilles heel. His actions during war time were positively honorable (not without flaw, but honorable).

The point is this - as with Ford, a good and more qualified man is going to lose because "the people" are simply fed up with the status quo. Be it Bush's inability to verbally convey the many good deeds he is doing or propose his argument (not to mention rubbing his base conservatives the wrong way, immigration, etc), OR Ford being the filth ring left in the Nixon bath tub, the "controversial" and the "status quo" will be vanquished by the American voter not because the alternative is better, but merely because it is an alternative. And as we can blame Nixon's actions and inactions on the Ford loss, we can also blame Bush's inability to verbally define his actions ... thus allowing the opposition to paint an inaccurate, yet accepted reality.

The only silver lining here is what emerged from the Carter presidency: Ronald Wilson Reagan. Maybe it will be Romney, maybe Palin, maybe some governor or perhaps senator you and I have never heard of, but IT WILL BE somebody. As Margaret Thatcher once quipped, "The facts of life are conservative." And after America flirts with its economic and national security "kumbya" represented in the latest popular socialist, a national indulgence if you will in how we viewed the world as children - everything fine and wonderful and candy for all - it will come back to the reality of life. Like an addict realizing the answer is not in the opium ... or in our case, the "Obamium." After our long four year journey into the night of socialism and capitulation we will cry out for a warrior, espousing personal responsability ... and again, history will repeat itself.

I now look to January 20th, 2013 for that warrior.