Russia vowes to "retaliate" for any further incursions into the region (meaning Iran)... Putin promises a new generation that Russian nuclear weapons will again be the envy of the world, in both number and capabilities... and no amount of "friendly offers" by Ms. Rice or Mr. Gates could induce the Russian President to ease his tough stance on issues like the war in Iraq and the need for more cooperation between the two former enemies.
As I said in the past (right here on this forum, in fact), Russia, under Putin or not, is gearing up for another run at "superpower" status. She wants to be able to project force globally, and as long as her navy is undermanned and outdated, then ICBMs and MRBMs and lots and lots of "boomers" will have to do.
It isn't her navy that gives me pause, though... it is her ability to control HUGE portions of the globes natural resources. With her out-dated and poorly maintained facilities, she is currently the number 2 producer and exported of oil, natural gas, gasoline... and the single largest producer of such commodities as fuel oil, diesel fuel and liquid propane in Eurasia (constituting nearly half of the globe!). If the country can continue to upgrade and invest in its production capacity, she has the means to increase her GDP growth rate by a factor 300-400% in the next 10 years.
In ten years time, how much can Russia regain of her former (admittedly questionable) military might? The Soviet system did not provide for the best in service and incentive drives, but it's tactical and strategic planning was more than adequate enough to remain effective even today. Many still feel the T-80/T-84 is the second best MBT in production, and the MiG 33 continues to impress experts at airshows around the world. Russia maintains the single, largest stockpile of conventional infantry and infantry support weapons and platforms on the face of the earth... enough AKs, equipment, artillery, support-supply-transportation vehicles, and (most important) munitions to supply every uniformed soldier in the EU twice over.
I still contend that it is RUSSIA, not China or the EU, that will be the "new" big-boy on the block. China and the EU have the simple fact that they cannot supply even half of the energy or resource needs that they have to maintain current national consumption levels... while Russia is MORE than capable of supplying its own energy and resource needs AND exporting vast quantities to those nations that need it and can pay through the teeth (like the EU and China).
Question: What does the US do if Russia (now or in the near future) decides to review past policies of seeing the world in general as divided into "spheres of influence"? The US is drooling at the prospect of placing a military base in one of the former Soviet republics that dot the Middle East region, and Putin has as much as said that won't happen in his lifetime.
Say what you will about Putin's questionable record of "democratic process"... he has worked enough magic to eliminate the abusive elitist billionarre upper class, and has watch the Russian "middle class" (those earning between $20k and $100k) more than 300% in his tenure as President. Compare that to the US and its middle class growth of only 2.5% since 2000 (and how many of those are illegal immigrants thataren't supposed to be here anyway?), and I think my point is clear.
Russia has the will AND the means to become a military and economic superpower in the next 10-20 years. Who is going to make the most of ensuring Russia's friendly position with the US and not sacrifice US global bargaining power? When is this going to become a primary factor in US foreign policy with Russia?
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3 comments:
I have agreed with you in the past over Russia's importance to the US. I even think that Jambo's idea of "Most Favored Nation" status being handed to Russia is innovative and worth a serious look. How many times over could Putin expand that 300% growth in the middle class if the goods and commodities they export were being welcomed with open arms by US purchasing power? This would be in concert with geopolitical concessions that reflect our national security aims of course. I don't know, however, and perhaps you do Titus, does the industrial and manufacturing infrastructure exist - or be quickly brought to bare - that can match China's current output and organization? Can they step in and supply Wal mart for example, without missing a beat?
His flat tax of 10% would certainly be as welcoming to business as the Chinese cheap labor, I would imagine. This is worth further examination. It would be a MAJOR and potentially risky move - but I fear to continue to ignore Putin's ambition for his country to return to 'superpower' status is an even greater risk.
FR
Oh - and nice title.
What difference would instant commercial production capacity make? They have the means to out-produce even the US in the realm of petroleum energy right now� using what I can only assume is second rate and out-dated technology, when compared to the OPEC nations and the rest of the West (UK, US, Canada, South America).
It certainly isn�t their commercial production capacity that I think will make them an economic rival to the US (at least not for a decade or more), but it is their ability to produce FAR more fuel, raw ore, precious metals, commodity chemicals (chlorine, phosphates, sulfides, and the like), timber, and things like �heavy water� and peroxides ( used in high-end explosive and rocket fuel production). They won�t ever dominate the electronics market like we do, or the Japanese, and their auto industry will NEVER compete with ours or the Germans� but nations like Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, North Korea, China, all of Europe� hell, any nation on earth will pay through the teeth for cheap and plentiful supplies of raw materials that FUEL the commercial industries of these same nations (or their militaries).
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