Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Good ol' Ruskies .... sniff.

Ahhh ... so much more fun with the Ruskies back!

Strategic thinking of the kind we are all used to - borders, armies, real estate matters ... unlike this messy business of terrorism. At any rate, between Jambo's posts and mine, I got to thinking. I wondered if there's perhaps some online version of RISK we can all participate in? You know, like a virtual reality game of the board version in which each of us can take our time to decide our next move, as schedules allow. I know you guys used to play it ("dancing in the____ river" - I can't remember the name, forgive me).

That would be fun.

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I wanted to add that this excerpt from below (& don't get me wrong, the entire thing is worth a read, at least twice) is the nuts and bolts of the entire initiative into Georgia:

"Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things. First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region. Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security."


If this is the reality, and the author below makes a powerful case that it is, then we are truly in a Neo Cold War. During the 2000 election, during a debate with Gore, Bush was asked if he agreed with the Clinton administration's description of China - "Strategic Partners." Bush said, "No. I see them as Strategic Competitors." What's sad is while I agree with then Governor Bush regarding China, he (and Clinton certainly) missed a golden opportunity to make the Clinton phrase of "strategic partners" a reality with Russia. I'll give Bush his kudos with China - Chinese/US relations have come along way since that spy plane sat on the run way in Mongolia (or wherever that was) during the first few months of his administration, especially economically. But the Russian bear was simply seen as "in transition" relative to their sphere's of influence and our concern with it .... they are back with a roar.

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