Let's talk about Yemen...

It's the poorest Arab nation in the world, and it is one of only eight Islamic republics to actually hold honest elections. It has fairly strong ties to the West, and sports an unemployment rate of more than 40% (and that's a 7 year average!). It is rapidly running out of oil (all reserves expected to be depleted by 2018) and is only now beginning to develop its natural gas production and exportation capabilities. Yemen is unable to supply even 20% of its agricultural needs to its population of 24.5 million people, and that population is growing at a rate of 100% every 29 years. Nearly 50% of its population is under 15 years of age, and less than 3% is over 60... that alone is a staggering statistic, isn't it? We see a state that, in 1950, had 4 million people in it that now has 25 million, and by 2050 will have more than 60 million... and nearly half of them will be over the age of 50.

The reason I am bringing this up now isn't because I am surprised that terror organizations like al Qaeda are digging into the sands of Yemen... that should seem obvious, given its demographics and economy. No, I'm pondering Yemen tonight because I wonder if it isn't a blue-print for what we can expect to see out of other Arab states with exploding populations and dwindling resources or sources of national revenue.


Saudi Arabia has already seen the pinch of depleted reserves, falling prices and increased competition from places like the UK, Russia and several South American states that have made petroleum production a priority. Could a similar fate be in store for them? How delicate is their security in a world where oil is rapidly becoming a four-letter word? How much of a risk does Yemen present to the Kingdom, if things continue to deteriorate over the next 5 years? With nearly 65% of Yemeni living on less than $1.45 per day, this is a country where the largest export is going to be unemployed, uneducated males between the age of 19 and 29 very, very soon. That has to scare the PANTS off of the Saudis.

What would happen if the same situation repeated in Algiers, or Libya, or Lebanon? How likely is it that this could even be something we could expect out of a post-American Iraq? With just enough security to compel the Americans to leave Iraq, isn't it possible that the fledgling economy of that country could fail to keep up with a future "baby-boom"? If in ten years, we see even a 5% increase in the Iraqi birthrate, that equates to an additional 1.3 million new mouths to feed each year in a country that has seen its infrastructure devastated and/or ignored for the last 25 years. Fifteen years from now, we'd see an Iraq with nearly the same demographics as Yemen today... 40% of the population under the age of 15, and growing at a rate 5% each year.

What do you guys think? How concerned does this make YOU?