Friday, September 3, 2010

Devil's advocate...

Ryan's slow in responding, so I'll give this another shot.

Exhibit B:

FDR raised taxes.

Mind you, so did Hoover in '32 (from a top marginal rate of 25% to a top rate of 63%... a BIG jump), but FDR and the New Deal Congresses took it all the way to 79% by '36. A staggering increase in tax burdens across the board, no question about it, and NOT something I support in a Presidential agenda.

THIS was where FDR deviated from functional Keynesian economic theory, because Keynes thought (as do I) that lowering taxes or deficit spending in a down economy is the quickest, easiest way to jump-start a recovery. When the economy is trending UP and is more stable, then a balanced budget plan (including higher taxes, if needed) can be followed to clear up the debt. This is where FDR erred in his recovery plan.

Now, do I discount all that happened between 1933 and 1939 simply because FDR didn't know about the Laffer Curve (published in 1974), outside of the fact that Laffer's economic theories were so heavily influenced by Keynes, whom FDR did know? How can I? That would require that I hold every President from FDR to Reagan to the same yardstick... if they are following the New Deal paradigm of "tax and spend" then they FAIL in their economic efforts, right?

Reagan, and to a lesser degree Bush Sr., understood the Laffer Curve and applied what they knew to their policies and agendas, and the economy grew far faster than it did during the recovery period of '34-'39... which is why I say that Reagan got RIGHT what FDR got wrong, but even Reagan failed to stick to his guns in his dealings with a hostile Congress... as did FDR. If one fails, then shouldn't the other? Reagan also had the added advantage of not having to deal with an American public that had grown to distrust the banking industry as much as the public of the 1930s... for as bad as the economy was in the late 70s and early 80s... there were no runs on the banks, and no one was putting cash in mattresses or coffee cans because they didn't trust banks. All through the 30's, the public had no real faith in banks that might (they thought) close their doors the next time the economy hiccuped (as it did in '37) and not let anyone withdraw their cash savings. Even the 1937 recession saw no runs or bank holidays... because FDIC was already providing a degree of public security that had never been there before. Doesn't that show measurable success of a New Deal program, within the time frame of the New Deal era?

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