Thursday, December 18, 2008

Juuust a bit wrong...

Dude... what is wrong with you? How could you be THIS wrong? On THIS topic?

The average age of an enlisted man in WWII was 26.2 years old, according to the US Census Bureau. The average age of a commissioned officer was 25.9. That means that the average soldier, sailor and marine was 15 years old when the market crashed in '29... plenty old enough to understand and experience fully the impact of that economic event on their lives and livelihood. "My contention" is very simple... that the experiences that these "young adults" had from 1930 to 1941 shaped them into the MEN that beat Germany and Japan back into the Bronze Age in four years. The same "boys" that built the Golden Gate and Camp David are the same "men" that stormed Omaha Beach and Iwo Jima. The bridges were sturdy, just like the men that built them.

Two years ago, we here at the Bund were the ONLY people using terms like "Austrian School" and "Keynesian economics" outside of the halls of higher education or the terminally anal bean-counters of the world. Now, the terms are bantered about by the likes of Church, Limbaugh and Hannity as if they were a routine part of the American lexicon.

The Austrian School of economic theory (as it exists today) says that an artificially inflated amount of money driving a credit-dominated economy will eventually lead to a bubble "crash" ("collapse" was the term they used in 1929). This does seem to define the modern economy as those currently in the White House, and those about to move into the White House, want to see American economic policy. This situation is the RESULT of an unregulated free-market speculation-pricing economy, as it was prior to October, 1929.

Keynesian theory says that government regulation and government policy work in a cyclical (literally, a "counter-cyclical") pattern... deficit spending when in a recession or a depression, and higher taxes and-or less spending in boom times to counter inflation. THIS is the policy (perhaps strategy is a better term) that reaped the MOST rewards for Reagan after the election of 1980... he increased defense spending and outlays to foreign governments while cutting taxes and domestic spending. The reversal of this strategy beginning in 1993 showed the start of the Booming 90s and carried us through the set-backs of the "tech-crash" of 2000 and the market hit after 9-11.

Where Obama and the "new Democrats" are WRONG now is in the fact that they are actively trying to RAISE taxes while at the same time SPENDING as much as 100% MORE than we are spending now. This is what Hoover did in 1932, when he initiated his own "relief" programs AND raised taxes by 15% across the board... he dug the US deeper into the depression than we had been at anytime before.

In my eyes, increased deficit spending with STATIC tax rates would help if the spending was focused on domestic programs... infrastructure, education, and yes... public works. National high-speed rail transport as a focus of policy is an example, as is a subsidized work-study program for college and university education... killing multiple birds with single stones, as it were. The same goes for deficit spending on national defense... and this is the area we need the most focus on, in my opinion. Winning the War on Terror by winning the war in Iraq and in Afghanistan could fill all our needs very easily... but these are NOT focuses of either the outgoing or the incoming Administrations, no matter what Ryan says.

My "beef" isn't with conservatives comparing Obama with FDR... my beef is with conservatives deriding New Deal policies as failures from the start by using terms like "Austrian School" and "Keynesian Theory" without knowing what the terms even mean. I guaranty you that Reagan was a Keynesian 100%... and Hoover was the fan-club president of the Austrian School.

It doesn't get any simpler than this:

When the economy is booming... tax more.

When the economy is hurting... tax less.

FDR was handicapped by a GOP that insisted on a balanced budget (practically impossible from 1934 on...). That same GOP insistence gave Clinton his best legacy feature... the 90's boom.

This isn't rocket science... it's 5th grade math!

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