Saturday, February 2, 2008

The end of the "Two-Party" system?

Had a discussion at work the other night that actually got my mind churning (that doesn't happen often enough at my casino, believe me...). Here's the short-and-sweet:

One of the top five issues facing the '08 candidates this election years is fundemental tax reform. Why? Because "Libertarian" GOP candidate Ron Paul made it so. His ability to be a factor in the actual '08 election aside, his contribution in this area is stunning. His position of eliminating the IRS for an alternative tax-revenue system got the public so fired up, it is now a dominant point in every debate and Q/A format the candidates might become involved in.

However, Paul's GOP bid is over, and his supporters will have to decide who among the survivors they will cast their votes for. I can't point to a Democrat candidate that had as big an impact, but with the question of FL/MI delegates still undecided, the potential for a Democratic disaster is still there.

Another is immigration. In a state where Latino/American voters a huge factor, which GOP candidate came out on top? The one with the most moderate immigration reform position... McCain. I can't help but feel that this give a new light to Ryan's position that the MAJORITY of legal immigrants and native-born Latino/Americans whole-heartedly support the kind of "closed" border mentality that Ryan (and many conservatives) advocate. The results of "Super Tuesday" will make or break my point on this issue, when so many other states with large, LEGAL Latino/American voting blocks have their voices heard.

In the last 25 years, we have seen the "multi-party" elections play a more prominent role in our Presidential races... Perot and the Reform Party are a great example, but a more general shift around the Independent or Libertarian parties are also examples. With such volitile and pressing issues as national security, immigration and health care looming nearly constantly now (on both sides of the isle), what are the chances that we will see, spread over the next 10 to 15 years, a larger and more vocal presence from "third" party candidates? The success of Perot and the Reform Party hasn't been matched since 1998, and I admit that Perot had a poor showing (electorially speaking) in '92... however, he DID get a full 19% of the traditional "conservative" popular vote... enough to have assured Bush Sr of another four years in office.

Both sides must come to grips with the possibility that, sometime in the near future, they will by vying for votes from relatively similar platform choices, and I think this is a GOOD thing. It will force candidates to provide substansive plans and agendas to their typically meager platforms, and the need to be able to address specific issues clearly and measurably will become paramount.

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