Mark my words ...

... Obama is going to make this thing go to the convention. Now, you may ask what does that mean, and what exactly IS a "brokered convention?" Well, it is true that the primary & caucus states will have dedicated their delegates by convention night (short any faithless electors); however, the "super delegates" will be up for grabs. These are delegates afforded party big wigs, i.e. former presidents all the way down to the national president of college Democrats. It's the closest thing to the old Boss Tweed style of party boss power, still in use; and if I'm not mistaken there's around 65 on the Democrat side uncommitted. Typically, a front runner is left as the obvious nominee long before the convention comes and the super delegates are prededicated ... but not this time.

Obama's beating Hill 1175 to her 1171 with 2025 needed for victory. This is after his Maryland, VA & DC wins today (McCain also won all three). Keep in mind Obama has won 8 of the last 8 states - the momentum is clearly with him. Imagine this - he walks in to that convention leading her in delegates decided by actual votes, and she arm twists the super delegates onto her side & the DNC brass has literally screwed the first black candidate with a legitimate chance at winning the White House out of a victory the rank & file Democrats have handed him. OUCH!

On the GOP side the AZ Senator is winning 789 to Huck's 241, the magic number being 1195.

On whom the military would most prefer on the GOP side? Well, obviously we are speaking in generalities, but it's safe to say (exit polls confirm this every four years in recent history, especially the last two presidential cycles) that our armed forces vote nearly 70% Republican. Little wonder in my estimation. As you may remember, in one of the most shameful election shinanigans I've ever witnessed, Gore, in 2000, tried to get thousands of overseas active duty military absentee ballots tossed out due to a technicality. The 2000 "hanging chad" fiasco was so close he tried to gain that advantage knowing they'd mostly go for Bush. At any rate, McCain has stacked up an impressive triple digit military endorsment roster that includes grenerals, admirals, colonels, the whole works. At least for the brass their man is McCain. And I don't blame them - a POW of the infamous Hanoi Hilton, Navy Squadron commander, he's a natural favorite for them and it's well deserved, I could never deny that.

Well, I was absent a bit lately due to a phenomenon happening all throughout the greater Vegas Valley. The housing boom was huge out here and in a scenario that has played out throughout the country (but especially here) ordinary doctors, dentists, HS pricipals, etc were buying two and three extra homes on interest only loans, sitting on them for 6 mos while renting them out to cover the note, & selling at the end of a short lease because the equity was almost instant, about 10 grand a month at one point. A lot of people made a fortune. Unbfortunately, if you were in the middle of this proccess when the bottom fell out, you were left holding a home worth 20% less then you payed for it, and the mortgage bills still rolling in. So thousands of renters have found themselves with 3 day notices to evict on their door, literally out of no where - afterall, as the renter, you never see the mortgage notes, late notices, forclosure letters etc. Renters don't know until the house has been repossesed and is going up for sale. A version of this happened to us (actually the owner out of CA had a property manager collecting rent on various units in Vegas but not turning around and paying the mortgage as was his job - ours was one of these - and by the time the owner found out his man was scamming him the market had dropped and he decided to focus on saving a slender number of his properties ... ours was not one of them). So, we got the 3 day notice but the same day a realtor employed by the lien holder to sell the repossesed house we're in showed up on our door step to see if he could help in expediting our removal, and after being explained the situation by me, he was able to get us 4 weeks worth of breathing room to find a new place, plus Wells Fargo (the consigned bank) is giving us a $300 check if we leave the house in good condition and are out by the 1st of March. Luckily we've got a bead on a new joint, 300 more square ft, an extra bedroom, corner lot (reducing our neighbors by 50%), 2 stories, & right across from a park - with actual GRASS in this desert - all for the exact same rent we're paying now. We should be moving end of the month so the "puter" will be out of comission for a few days then. I think we'll rent another 12 mos until the market has so called "bottomed out", according to Cavuto, and then try and become homeowners again.

Later .....

OH - and I'm trying to predict who McCain will pick as a VP. Huckabee, with his social conservative credentials and his obvious ability to sweep the south (as he's done this entire primary season) seems a natural, but does McCain further alienate the "Limbaugh wing" of the party by picking another guy seen as soft on illegal imigration & taxes? Believe it or not Barbour was predicted to be on a short list according to a FOX pundit today. A southerner makes sense, afterall during this primary McCain has won due to states he'll never carry in the general - CA, NY etc. Any Republican that splits the south with Obama (they won't go Hillary no matter what) loses, period, so his choice for second in command will be crucial. If I were him (knowing he won't go Romney, they can't stand eachother ... although Jophnson hated the Kennedy's so you never know, but I digress ...) I'd tap the Roman Catholic, very conservative, smart youthful, camera-friendly former senator Rick Santorum of PA. Conservatives love this guy and his last loss (in 06') due to his supprt for the war has projected him into GOP martyr status - everybody from Rush to Levine to Beck can't get enough of this guy, and I've always liked him, giving him the evr important "F.Ryan" endorsmnet. Had he pulled out that PA race in 06' he'd be in this presidential race right now, of that I have no doubt. Alright, that's my prediction - Santorum. Short of that it's a southern governor.
FR