A really great point was brought up in a discussion here at work, and I wanted to share it with you "space losers"...
Who was the last President to NOT lose at least 20% of his approval in the first year of his term?
The phenomenon is called the "freshman blues"... the reality of a significant portion of a new President's supporters suddenly realizing that he can't deliver on the vast majority of his promises (at least not in the first year).
Was it Clinton? Nope. His "freshman blues" lasted two years, and cost him the Democratic majority in the Congress.
Was it Reagan? He got a little jump after the Hinkley shooting, but not enough to keep him on the up-side of a 20 point drop in his approval ratings.
No, it was Nixon. Tricky Dicky did nothing but gain in the ratings for the first four years. Before him? Kennedy. Same thing, even with the Bay of Pigs, he made sure his agendas ALWAYS focused on the Dems BASE issues (at that time, civil rights and anti-Communism).
Presidents that BEAT the freshman blues and maintained their coalition between popular and political support did so by all employing the same strategy: FOCUS ON THE BASE ISSUES!
Reagan did it with wild success (anti-Communism and lower taxes)... Carter failed from his first 100 days to his last 24 hours in the Oval Office. Bush Sr. had it right to the last year of his administration, but blew 50% of his coalition away when he failed to read his own lips... but Clinton got it right. His approval dropped hugely, but he kept the coalition together by always making the SUCCESS of anything Congress did his own by doing nothing more than NOT vetoing it.
Now to apply this to our new President...
Who could honestly expect Obama to deliver on even 20% of what he has promised in his first year in office? He won't have made health care affordable yet (and he won't... at all), he won't have ended the Iraq War, or won the War on Terror. The nation won't be getting any huge rebates in April, 2009... and there is very little evidence that things like gas prices will do anything but go back up.
He has built his "coalition" around some very hostile groups. Gays and lesbians don't typically mix well (in the political sense) with African Americans that subscribe to "liberation theology" each and every Sunday. The nation's 10 largest unions aren't going to agree with ANYTHING that the tax strategists in an Obama White House will have to say. America's health care industry (roughly 12% of our ENTIRE economy) isn't going to enjoy having Obama and Congress tell them what they can charge.
It's been a long time since we have seen a President have to PROVE himself as much as Obama will have to in the next 14 months...
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1 comment:
No, you're right, those are all good points. Although I think he will try and buy some wiggle room on taxes and NAFTA from the unions by passing this "check off" union legislation. This removes the secret ballot vote for unions. Can you believe that? You must vote in front of your coworkers ... they're going to LOVE that.
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