Look, like I said, I'm not saying we couldn't have won a third European war. In fact, I am convinced we would have. I'm simply saying that it isn't the forgone conclusion that many seem to think it is.
Further more, I DO think there is a difference between what was happening in Afghanistan and what could have happened in Europe. At the height of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan, there were never more than three complete divisions in country. In East Germany ALONE, there were the equivalent of 27 fully equipped and fully trained divisions. Add the other 14 divisions in Poland (Soviets now... I'm not counting the Poles themselves) and 13 in Czechoslovakia, and the entire NATO front line force of 22 divisions was damn near outgunned from the start of the equation. Then you have the "mobile reserve" units... those units that would capitalize on any break-through action that happens at the front... which consisted of two complete army groups: the 27th Tank Army and the 3rd Guards Shock Army (a combined arms army of more than five divisions)... and you begin to see my point, right?
We've actually played simulations that showed that an early (meaning "surprise") attack by the Soviets could produce a shocking rate of advance into the west... and even if the surprise weren't complete (as I doubt it would have been), any hesitation or confusion on the part of the NATO members equalled the same thing.
Also, Afghani success against Soviet armor was almost exclusively via ambush... meaning repeated heavy concentrations of fire and munitions on targets that are unable to function as designed or intended due to artificial constraints. Do you really think that the same formula would have applied in Europe? Just as the Afghani guerrillas used the failures of the Soviets to learn how to fight in mountainous, rugged terrain to their advantage... the Soviets had 40 years of planning and training on how to advance through European terrain to the best of their advantage... unhampered by understood and accepted constraints that limited NATO forces in the event of an invasion.
I don't want this to be a fight... if it is worth further discussion, then lets do it. Otherwise write it off to Titus' worthless musings.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
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