Sunday, January 11, 2009

My answer...

Do I think that the New Deal was a catastrophic disaster, as Buchanan said?

No.

Now, of course I have tons of qualifiers and addendums I can throw in here, but the pure and simple of the result is that the depression that resulted from the Crash of '29 was over by the time Roosevelt was in his first term. The only tell-tale that remained from that first, initial depression cycle was the shockingly high unemployement level (17% in '32 I think). All other economic indicators used to determine recession/depression cycles were climbing out of their lowest levels.

The New Deal put an average of 3.7 million people to work (admittedly, for the Federal government... but still working), which was a huge percentage of the work force at that time. It is MY opinion that the reason the REST of the economy didn't match the government's job-creation record is because the level of taxes remained artificially HIGH during this same period.

Yes, this was one of the failings of the New Deal... having a top end income tax rate of 70%, and a corporate tax rate of more than 58% meant that the private sector couldn't spend any money to keep up with or compeat against the Federal programs (in terms of jobs, I mean). The high taxes artificially propped up the Federal job programs, while forcing down the private job sector.

Now, FDR signed all these taxes into law (or 99% of them, as I know Hoover did, eventually raise taxes)... but he didn't have sole control of that. Some of the blame must go to the opposition in Congress for insisting on a balanced budget.

This cycle is repeated in the end of the first Nixon administration, too... as we watched Nixon signing in all these work programs and Federally funded contracts while at the same time he DIDN'T veto any of the tax increases that Congress were passing. It has always been ironic to me that the same cycle that started New Deal politics in the US ended it as well... Ford did nothing to change the Nixon dynamic... and Carter simply perpetuated it until Reagan was forced to show the OPPOSITE side of the Keynesian formula... lower taxes.

Had Buchanan said that the Federal government failed to resolve the issues facing our economy in the 1930's, I'd agree. I agree that the New Deal had failings... but it isn't accurate to blame it ALL on the New Deal or FDR.

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