Are we good or what?

Again, a prediction that we here at the Bund made has been echoed in the press...

The senior economic advisor to the Palestinian Authority has said in a press release that the Palestinian economy would grow 15-20% annually if a lasting peace could be brokered with Israel. This is tantamount to admitting that the only road to prosperity for the PA is through PEACE with Israel, and continuing to fight against Israel will only further the problems and troubles of the common Palestinian on the streets of Gaza, Golan and the West Bank. Nothing good can come of continuing the struggle.

This release was made on the same day that Lebanon stated they were committed to keeping the peace with Israel, days after a deadly exchange of fire happened on the Lebanon-Israeli border. It seems that the Lebanese military is now facing the prospect that many of its lower-level officers and enlisted men are Hezbullah-sympathizers, and this may account for the exchange of fire. If Hezbullah has recruited member of the military, then some tough actions might be needed on the part of the Lebanese to clean house before another such incident arises.

Imagine the effect on the whole region if (and this is a big IF, I know) the PA could broker a deal for real "peace" that lasted even 24 months, and in the same 24 months, Lebanon eliminated the influence of Syria and Iran from its domestic political institutions (i.e. Hezbullah). In just those 24 months, Lebanon, Israel and the PA could ALL show a huge increase in domestic economic growth, increased international trade and tourism, and for many of the "common people" of the region, demonstrate first-hand experience in the benefits of "peace" over war.

Then, imagine the de-stabilizing effect this would have on both Iran and Syria. Syria's economy has been stumbling along on the verge of total collapse for more than four years now, with inflation in the Damascus markets at levels not seen since the end of WWII. Iran is showing the tenuous threads it is maintaining control with, as news of the latest "assassination attempt" on Ahmedgitajob (via a hand grenade, of all things... what is this, Sarajevo circa 1914?) hits the front pages of many papers. Already, Jordan is seeing an increase in terror and crime prevention from cooperation with the Israelis, and with continued cooperation, Amman and Tel Aviv could broker a real trade/tourism deal that could ensure (literally) BILLIONS in tourism revenue from the trans-Jordan region of the Holy Land, which sees millions of foreign tourists and pilgrims annually.

Look at one of Israel's former enemies... and one of Israel's prospective new enemies, Egypt and Turkey. In the last 8 years, tourism from Israel to Egypt has increased 450% per year, while tourism from Israel to Turkey is down 90% from this time last year. That is more than 100 million shekels a year out of Turkey's coffers and into Egypt's. I'm not sure that Turkey's economy can afford to ignore that kind of revenue loss very much longer, what with the fiasco that their decades-old Cyprus campaign has cost them in sanctions and embargoes and the cost of fighting the Kurdish separatists for the last 18 years... while Egypt is experiencing an economic growth rate of double-digit numbers as it continues to work (seemingly) side-by-side with the Israelis to stem the tide of weapons to Gaza and find the Hamas-sympathizers launching rockets from the Sinai deserts.

The down-side to all this? We surely aren't the only ones to see this trend. If we know it, then the Iranians know it, too... and that means that pressure and violence will continue to be applied from Tehran in an effort to make Israel appear the "bad guy" as often as possible to the average Muslim in the region (or anyone else that doesn't live in the region... like here in the US, for example). This can only make my wish of a 24-month "peace" all the harder to achieve.