Damn, I hate being right all the time...

Found this article today, detailing the cooperation between the IDF and the Jordanian military in combating terrorism in the region. Concerns about Iranian influence don't seem to be limited to Israel and the US... it seems Amman is also worried. Several weeks ago, a Katyusha-rocket attack was launched from somewhere in the Sinai desert that hit both Israeli and Jordanian territory, and Jordan is treating the attack as a targeting of Jordan, even if it was actually intended to hit Israeli territory. Since it is unlikely that the Egyptians provided the weapons and platforms for the attack, then the responsibility must fall to either Hamas- or al Qiada-sponsored groups.

Then, in an unrelated event, rockets and bullets were flying across the northern Israeli border with Lebanon yesterday, killing two Lebanese soldiers and wounding two Israelis. If the incident was, indeed, caused by a rocket attack, then I'd say there is clear evidence that Hezbollah is stepping up its activity in an attempt to derail the proposed peace talks between the PA and Israel... again... by starting another Israeli-Lebanon war. Israel has made it clear that it is holding Lebanon responsible for keeping the rockets from falling, and if more rockets are fired in the coming days, then we can all expect to see the IDF cross the border to stop them, regardless of whether or not the Lebanese approve.

One member of the Israeli Foreign Ministry thinks this is "unlikely" to happen... but I disagree with him. He thinks that Hezbollah will do whatever it takes to keep from destabilizing their position in Lebanon, especially since they are the primary targets in the investigation of the assassination of Lebanese PM Hariri, a murder that as brought real anger and resentment from the Lebanese public. I think that Hezbollah is nothing more than a tool of the Iranian government, and Tehran will use that tool in whatever manner best suits its agenda, and their primary agenda is to take attention away from Iran's nuclear ambitions and the hostility those ambitions are drawing from the international community. If, by drawing the Israelis into a war with Lebanon, the Iranians (via Hezbollah) can ensure that international opinion against the Israelis is at an all-time low before Israel has a chance to make a first-strike attack against Iran's nuclear development facilities.

With yesterday's concerted insurgent attack on the NATO base at Kandahar, I think we can see that Iran was quite serious (and speaking literally) when it said that it would be fighting a "two-front" campaign in the coming weeks. Iran is one of the primary supporters of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan, and such attacks, coming on the very week that America increases its presence as the member-states of NATO withdraw from the theater (i.e. the Dutch), seem clear proof that Iran wants to see as much confusion and mayhem as possible to take attention away from their growing nuclear capability. The more the anti-war elements in the US and UK can see the cost of fighting, the less they are going to support anti-Iranian action by either power.