Sunday, January 2, 2011

There's a flaw...

Like a fly in your ointment, you've over-looked something in your analogy:

Ryan writes:

"Look, don't take this personal, it's not necessarily you, but America at large. Every year, when the weather gets more extreme (i.e. coldest parts of winter, hottest of summer), we set about bitching and moaning about the price of petro. And I can't take it anymore. "

The country has an abundance of fuel oil... reserves in every state are at maximum, and since the start of December, the weather has been warm enough to spawn a rash of unseasonal tornadoes across the southern states (some actually causing fatalities, as in those recently seen in MS and AR. Yes, some places have seen lots of snow... but the "cold" has come yet. The big spikes in petroleum pricing that is due to weather and seasonal changes in temps is best reflected in fuel oil prices, not gasoline. No noticeable spikes there... and I'd know, having a honking big fuel oil furnace in my basement as I type.

Crude isn't scarce... it is flowing into the country in gigantic tanker loads at a record rate. It's still above $50/barrel, but it is there in abundance. No reason for gasoline spikes there, either. Nothing close to the $108/barrel rate that we saw in 2008 when the price of gas was last this high, is it?

With the inauguration of a new class of GOP Representatives, I would think that the national average in crude prices (and all associated production costs) would come DOWN... not go up. If we can't expect lower taxes, then we can certainly expect less spending from this new GOP majority in the House, and that is always GOOD for the price of gas and the speculative pricing that goes along with it. Not the case, however.

Now, having said that, I have to say (as I told Jambo earlier) that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has made one of its first legislative efforts to RAISE the state tax on fuel (including gas) to OFFSET an expected reduction in Federal funds coming into the state from Washington. Bad news for PA drivers... nut no excuse for an increase in the national average, is it? I can accept this as the price needed to be paid for a rational House of Representatives (compared to what we've had the last four years, anyway).... but the Bill hasn't even hit the new floor yet! What is the cause, then?

I have no problem with your "pizza" analogy... this nation's top priority should be to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil sources in as short a time frame as possible... but as to the question at hand ("Why is gas so expensive right now?"), there is no glut on the oil market, and the price of crude does not reflect the actual cost of gasoline at the pumps! WHY??? Only two and a half years ago, the price of crude oil was more than $110 per barrel, and gasoline was at more than $3.50 a gallon. Crude closed at less than $70/barrel today, but gasoline is has a national average of $3.14/gallon. Do you see the disparity here? (BTW, my sources is HERE.) Gas is damn near as much now as it was then... with no comparable increase in the cost or scarcity of crude.

Nope... someone is going to have to show me that this ISN'T simply another run on the speculative market price of crude oil. A tiny fraction of the investor market buying future prices of crude, and driving the price up for the common man (and this staggeringly slow economy of ours). This isn't "Mom and Pop" investors or day-traders making a quick buck on E-Trade... you need to buy these futures contracts in blocks of 100,000 barrels, and at $70/barrel, that's a BIG investment. Far bigger than you or I can afford... so don't tell me this is "free market" economics working for the John Q Public investor.

I'll feel sorry for the oil companies when I KNOW the cost of crude is measurably higher or that it is noticeably scarcer... when it is NOT more expensive or harder to find, then the difference in the price of gas means nothing but PROFIT to the oil companies. Perhaps it is "communist" and anti-American to say there should be a limit on what they can make from the general public... I won't argue that again... but if the price of gas goes UP while the price of crude does not, then that smacks of gouging to me.

Just my opinion, though... no one has to listen to me.

Hell, no one does anyway.

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